Imagine for a moment that the province of Quebec secedes from Canada, becomes an independent nation, and chooses to call itself "Vermont." Or that the Mexican state of Nuevo Leon breaks from Mexico and becomes the independent nation of "Texas."
How would the United States respond to these developments? Would these names imply that the new countries have a claim on American territory? Does the name of the state of New Mexico create a claim on Mexico's territory?
These are exactly the types of questions facing Greece and Macedonia right now, as a long-simmering dispute comes to a head. NATO is heading into a summit in Bucharest, Romania, next week and must make a decision on whether to invite Macedonia into the Atlantic Alliance.
The problem is that Macedonia is the name for both Greece's northernmost state, and the landlocked country that shares a long border with Greece. Top Greek officials have said they will block Macedonia's entry into the alliance if the name controversy is not resolved.
"Greece supports the [NATO] candidacy of Albania and Croatia," said Greek foreign minister Dora Bakoyannis, but the name issue does "not allow us to take the same position" with regards to Macedonia.
The Greek and Macedonian foreign ministers spoke on the issue last week and met again in New York with U.N. negotiator Matt Nimetz on March 25 in a last-ditch effort to sort out the controversy before Bucharest. In a statement, Bakoyannis sounded a conciliatory tone, saying last week's meeting was "a useful discussion and on honest exchange of ideas that underlines the will of the two governments to reach a solution." Still, the parties failed to reach agreement at the March 25 meeting.
Among the possible solutions is for Macedonia to use one name internally and another for international purposes or, of course, for the nation to change its name or to convince Greece to accept "Republic of Macedonia" as is.
The United States, long the big dog in NATO, is not standing by as an idle observer. "We would hope that Greece and Macedonia will be able to accept a way forward," said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
The U.S. supports an ongoing United Nations effort to solve the impasse. The administration has "urged both parties to work together" with Nimetz in the time remaining before the NATO summit "to come to a win-win solution," said Daniel Fried, assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, in recent testimony before Congress. The administration is urging Greece and Macedonia to "not allow this issue to prevent Macedonia from being invited to join NATO," Fried said.
From the American perspective, if Macedonia's NATO candidacy is judged solely on its merits, its prospects look good. "To the degree that Macedonia meets the criteria -- and I think there's a general sense . . . that they are doing so," said Rice earlier this month, "then they ought to be admitted to the alliance."
The alliance will make a decision in Bucharest April 2-4 on whether to invite Macedonia, Albania, and Croatia into NATO. These three nations have been part of NATO's Membership Action Plan, and Fried said Macedonia "like the other aspirants, is punching above its weight in operations, and its progress on defense reforms has been impressive."
NATO is careful to stress that participation in the Membership Action Plan (MAP) does not guarantee a future invitation to join the alliance, but the results so far have all been positive. Since the MAP was launched in 1999, 10 nations have been invited to follow the plan. Seven were invited into the Alliance in 2002 and officially became members in 2004 -- including Romania, the host for next week's summit.
Only Albania, Macedonia, and Croatia (a late joiner, in 2001) remain in the MAP.
NATO decisions must be unanimous, however, meaning that Greece can scuttle Macedonia's membership chances if it remains opposed. As Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, NATO secretary general, put it, Greece holds all the cards when it comes to NATO accession because "there's an ally -- Greece -- and a non-ally -- Macedonia."
German Chancellor Angela Merkel also signaled recently that NATO aspirants need to patch up their local affairs before seeking membership in the alliance. Bloomberg reported that Merkel said earlier this month that nations that are "enmeshed in regional conflicts shouldn't try to become members."
Greece has opposed Macedonia's constitutional name -- the Republic of Macedonia -- for 17 years, since the small democracy achieved independence from Yugoslavia. In a stopgap compromise that seems to have pleased no one, the nation became known to many as the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). The nation was admitted into the United Nations in 1993 with this "provisional" name.
Macedonia is also referred to as "the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia*" in all official NATO documents.
The asterisk is the indication that the name controversy doesn't end with Greece and Macedonia. As the NATO Handbook explains, the asterisk represents the following footnote: "Turkey recognizes the Republic of Macedonia with its constitutional name."
Greece's old tensions with Turkey will probably not be resolved anytime soon, but the nation now has a golden opportunity to patch up relations with another neighbor. If Greece and Macedonia can do so, Macedonia's NATO bid can be judged on its merits, and not rejected out of hand for political reasons.
That would serve the Alliance well.
(world politics review)
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