There is a considerable concern that anymore delays in the adoption of the Ahtisaari proposal for the monitored independence of Kosovo will provoke a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo leaders.
In the past week, the EU has made increasing calls not to further delay the decision on the Kosovo status issue. On Wednesday (July 4th), EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn cautioned that Europe would pay the price of any failure in the Kosovo status issue -- not Russia or the United States.
His call follows a statement from EU security chief Javier Solana's spokeswoman on Tuesday, saying that Brussels wants a consensus on the Kosovo status to be reached as soon as possible. The bloc favours a quick UN Security Council adoption of a new resolution based on former UN envoy Martti Ahtisaari's blueprint, which calls for supervised independence.
At this point, the credibility of the entire government in Kosovo is in doubt -- in order to hold on to shred of authority, officials in the province are hinting that might have to go it alone. They likely thought everything would be completed by the end of May, and hope surged for the adoption of the Ahtisaari plan. Now they find themselves backtracking.
In the event that there is no Security Council resolution, Kosovo’s leaders have warned that they will move on. It remains to be seen just how much more patience the international community can encourage there.
Last month, US envoy for Kosovo Frank Wisner reiterated Washington's support for Kosovo's independence, and said sovereignty for the province must be the end goal. However, he said, "it is important that independence be achieved as a result of a UN Security Council resolution that will set the stage for recognition, and will open the door to your acceptance into NATO and the EU."
A unilateral declaration is dangerous for a number of reasons. First, it will split the EU and the region, thus undermining years gained in the promotion of regional stability and integration. Balkan states need to be able to say that Europe and the United States want the Ahtisaari plan, and since we want to be part of the Euro-Atlantic clubs, what choice do we have? In essence, a single Security Council-EU/US voice allows them to shift blame and put everyone in the clear.
In the absence of unanimity from the Security Council, the EU and the US, the question of Serbia plays a bigger role. While Albania would be among the first to set-up shop in Pristina, the rest of the region would have to weigh things more carefully. For example, Montenegro, which requires good relations with Serbia, would not be among the first to recognize Kosovo. Macedonia has less to lose and cannot afford to alienate its Albanian minority. Bulgaria and Romania would, like Montenegro, be better off at the end of the line of recognition rather than the front of it. Bosnia would be in no position to offer recognition given the destabilizing effect it would have on its weak federation." Croatia and Slovenia could afford to sit on the fence on the whole issue.
While Great Britain has been steadfast in its support of the Ahtisaari plan, the proposal for more negotiations between Albanians and Serbs by French President Nicolas Sarkozy was not well-received in Kosovo.
Belgrade will continue to put off a final solution for Kosovo, relying on Russian help, in an attempt to convince as many countries as it can than an independent Kosovo would be a dangerous international precedent. Consequently, Belgrade's diplomatic offensive is largely aimed at the undecided members of the Security Council -- Slovakia, South Africa and Indonesia -- but also EU members that could have problems with their own separatists as a result of the secession of Kosovo.
Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica has said that Belgrade will insist on the continuation of talks with Pristina, while also demanding that these talks not be accompanied by time limits or prearranged outcomes in the event of failure. Belgrade has also called for a new international mediator.
At the same time, Belgrade will strive to consolidate its position in Kosovo, especially in the province's north, which has little in the way of ties with Pristina. The main problem, however, is that only 40,000 of the 130,000 Serbs left in Kosovo live in the north, with the remainder residing in enclaves surrounded by Albanian-populated areas.
Minister for Kosovo and Metohija Slobodan Samardzic has said that Serbia intends to invest in Kosovo and do everything it can to ensure as great a presence for its institutions in the province as possible.
The external factors aside, a unilateral declaration will not do Kosovo much good. While UNMIK could stay, a new EU mission could not start. The UN will not find itself any more welcome, and there will be divisions within the EU. Most importantly, the Balkans will again face instability.
(SETimes)
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